HM Treasury estimated that the bottom fifth of households in England will gain about £230 a year from energy support in 2026-27, almost four times the top fifth, it said on Tuesday.
Across all households in England, the Treasury put the average benefit from government household energy support at around £160 over the same year.
It also estimated that fuel stressed households receive £230 of support on average, against £150 for households that are not fuel stressed. The Treasury defines a fuel stressed household as one spending over 10% of after-housing-cost income on energy.
The lowest income deciles (the tenths of households ranked by net income) gain most both in cash terms and as a share of net income, the Treasury said.
The figures are the Treasury’s own estimates from its distributional analysis model, not an independent evaluation.
The Treasury said the support is "most vulnerable to energy affordability pressures" in its targeting, saying the combined measures are aimed at households facing the greatest affordability strain.
The estimate combines six policies. The first is a £100 council tax rebate for households in bands A to D in England, shown in the Treasury’s charts as paid from January 2027.
The second is a £100m fund for English local authorities to help households hit hardest by rising bills, with councils deciding how it is distributed.
The third is a cut in VAT on domestic electricity from 5% to 0%, running from 1 October 2026 to 1 July 2027.
The remaining three are the Warm Home Discount, Winter Fuel Payments and Cold Weather Payments.
The Cold Weather Payment figure rests on estimated spending in 2025-26. The Treasury said what is actually paid in 2026-27 will depend on temperature.
The estimates cover England only and do not show the effect on households elsewhere in the UK, the Treasury said.
It added that separate decisions may be made on energy cost support in other parts of the UK, and that some related benefits, such as the Winter Fuel Allowance, have been devolved.
Income-distribution results mainly use Family Resources Survey data for 2022-23, 2023-24 and 2024-25. The fuel stress results draw on the Office for National Statistics’ Living Costs and Food Survey for 2019-20, 2022-23 and 2023-24.
Ofgem said the Warm Home Discount mainly provides £150 energy bill rebates, paid for through a levy on all domestic gas and electricity customers.
The scheme covers England, Scotland and Wales and is due to run until 31 March 2031. Scheme year 16 in England and Wales runs from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2027.
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero set the qualifying date for winter 2026 to 2027 at 23 August 2026, according to its eligibility statement published on 7 August 2026.
Eligible households must receive Pension Credit, income-related Employment and Support Allowance, Housing Benefit or Universal Credit on that date, and be named on an electricity bill with a participating supplier.
The Treasury’s full results are in its energy support analysis and the accompanying paper.
