Greggs shares H1 2026 performance sent the stock up roughly 18% over the past month, after the bakery chain reported pre-tax profit of £76m for the 26 weeks to 27 June, beating analyst consensus of £73.1m and rising 19.7% on the same period a year earlier, according to Morningstar/Alliance News.
Revenue climbed 7.2% to £1,101.5m, also ahead of the £1.09bn consensus. Operating profit rose 22.9% to £86.5m, against a forecast of £79.0m.
Greggs Shares H1 2026: What the Numbers Show
Diluted earnings per share rose 21.2% to 54.9p, up from 45.3p in the first half of 2025, beating analyst forecasts of around 50.1p by roughly 9.8%, according to the company’s interim results filing.
On the day of the announcement, Greggs was the best-performing FTSE 250 stock, with shares rising 13% to 1,914.00p and setting a new 52-week high of 1,915.00p, Morningstar/Alliance News reported.
Like-for-like sales grew 2.1%, supported by menu additions including a chicken roll and matcha drinks, as well as grocery partnerships with Tesco and Iceland. The company’s first international outlet at Tenerife South Airport made a ‘promising start’, management said.
Greggs also gained market share. Its share of visits in the food-to-go market rose 0.3 percentage points to 8.7% for the 12 months to June 2026, even as the broader food-to-go sector saw visits fall by nearly 2% over the same period, according to Circana-CREST data cited in the interim results.
Estate Expansion and Longer-Term Capacity Plans
Greggs opened a net 34 new shops in the first half, bringing its total estate to 2,773 shops as at 27 June 2026. The company expects to open approximately 100 to 110 net new shops in full-year 2026, plus ten additional ‘Greggs Express’ convenience retailing trials.
The longer-term target is more ambitious. A retail catchment assessment supports investment in supply chain capacity for up to 3,500 shops, with new national distribution centres under construction in Derby and Kettering to serve that target estate size, the interim results show.
Capital expenditure for 2026 has been trimmed to approximately £180m, down from a prior plan of £200m. The company is targeting a return on capital employed of around 20% and said strong operating cash generation is expected to create capacity for additional shareholder returns.
Greggs also extended its revolving credit facility to June 2028, with one further one-year extension option, providing £100m of committed liquidity, according to a filing on the FCA National Storage Mechanism.
Dividend, Valuation and the Case for Income Investors
The board declared an interim dividend of 19.0p per share, payable on 9 October 2026 to shareholders on the register at 11 September 2026. The board’s policy is to maintain the ordinary dividend until it is twice covered by underlying earnings, the interim results state.
The full-year dividend for 2026 is expected to remain at around 69p per share, implying a trailing yield of roughly 3.7% and a payout ratio of around 53%.
Despite the recent rally, Greggs shares remain down approximately 38% over five years. The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 14, below its own historical average. Some analysts estimate the shares could be undervalued by as much as 51% using discounted cash flow modelling, though that figure depends heavily on earnings growth assumptions holding.
The key risk is demand. Consumer confidence in the UK remains fragile, and cost inflation could erode the margin progress Greggs has worked to rebuild after full-year 2025 underlying profit before tax fell 9.4% to £171.9m, according to FT Markets reporting on the 2025 preliminary results announcement.
A softer H2 would also test the dividend coverage policy. The board’s twice-covered commitment provides some protection, but a sustained sales slowdown would put that calculus under pressure.
The next scheduled trading update will offer the first read on whether the H1 2026 momentum has carried into the second half of the year. Further detail on Greggs PLC corporate filings is available via Companies House. Additional context on the H1 results is covered by ADVFN UK.
