Brent crude held above $87 per barrel on Tuesday morning as Donald Trump signalled the US was in no rush to conclude talks with Iran, keeping oil markets on edge for a fourth straight session. On Monday 10 August 2026, Euronews reported Brent futures for October delivery gained 1.04% to $84.42 a barrel, while US WTI futures for September advanced 0.83% to $78.83.
Trump told Axios the US was ‘only semi-negotiating’ with Tehran. ‘We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money,’ he said. ‘It will work out. It always works out. It’s like a chess game.’
Brent Crude Above $87 and the Hormuz Standoff
The conflict’s toll on oil markets has been severe. When the US-Israeli war with Iran began on 28 February 2026 and Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf producers shut in as much as 12 million barrels per day, sending Brent above $120 in the spring and dated Brent assessments past $140, the highest since 2008, according to Investing.com UK.
By late June 2026, as the Strait began to reopen gradually, Brent fell back to $72 and WTI to $69.58. The current rise back toward and above $87 reflects renewed uncertainty over whether a deal will hold.
Restoring Gulf exports from 16.1 million bpd toward 20 million bpd would add roughly 4 million bpd to seaborne supply, enough to push Brent back toward the $70s, Investing.com analysis said. A renewed closure, however, could send prices above $120 within days.
The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent to average $85 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 as Hormuz disruptions weigh on global supply, according to Anadolu Agency. HSBC raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $90 as the crisis dragged on, OilPrice.com reported. JPMorgan’s base case, reported by Yahoo Finance, is a Hormuz reopening by end of June 2026, though the bank said rebuilding inventories would likely keep Brent near $100 through year-end.
Trump’s public posture on negotiations hardened further this week. Al Jazeera reported Trump telling White House reporters his administration was seeking payment for 50 years of damages caused by Iran, framing the demand as a direct response to Tehran’s own reparations claims. According to Axios, a week before that interview, US officials said Trump had been leaning toward resuming major combat operations against Iran before being convinced to de-escalate.
Tehran is also in separate negotiations with Oman to partially reopen the narrow waterway, but has set six conditions, including a permanent end to the war and a halt to aggression against Iran’s allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen and Iraq.
Funding Circle Lands £500m from Castlelake
Away from oil markets, UK fintech lender Funding Circle announced on 11 August 2026 that Castlelake, a global alternative investment manager, had committed up to £500m over two years to fund UK small businesses through its platform. The deal marks Castlelake’s first investment on the Funding Circle platform.
Funding Circle’s full-year 2025 results showed revenue growth of 28% to £204m and profit before tax of £20m, with the company reporting it hit its 2026 revenue guidance a year early. The group also passed £2.5bn of issuance with its tenth public securitisation of investor loans in June 2026.
For oil, the binary is clear: any confirmation of a durable Hormuz agreement would pull Brent sharply lower, while a breakdown in talks reopens the path above $120.
