The Strait of Hormuz oil crisis pushed Brent crude toward a weekly gain of around 12% on Friday, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that oil security remains a critical problem and US forces continued to enforce a naval blockade against Iran.
Brent was holding around $85 per barrel at the time of the original reports, though Statista’s Brent crude price tracker shows the benchmark surpassed $90 intraday earlier in the week, having opened that day at $89, after Iran announced the closure of the strait.
IEA Chief Warns of Deficit Risk as Strait of Hormuz Oil Crisis Deepens
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol delivered a blunt assessment at a Council on Foreign Relations event. ‘Oil security is still a critical issue,’ he said. ‘We should be worried, and I am worried if the situation does not improve in the next few weeks.’
Speaking separately at an Atlantic Council event, Birol said the IEA is ready to act with additional releases of reserves if needed, according to a transcript published by the Atlantic Council. He noted that a two-week ceasefire had briefly raised hopes before collapsing following the breakdown of US-Iran talks and the announcement of a US naval blockade.
At the CFR event, Birol warned that if the crisis continues, oil markets could move into a deficit zone. He said that would be most damaging for oil-importing developing nations. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are building new pipelines to reduce their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, he added, but these will take time.
The IEA’s official statement on oil markets flagged the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as an increasingly important bypass route, and said threats to it compound supply security concerns. Gulf producers, notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have continued to supply global markets via alternative routes, though the IEA estimates exports are below their late-June highs, if still considerably higher than levels seen between early March and mid-June.
US Blockade Tightens: 25 Vessels Turned Back
US Central Command (CENTCOM) directed its forces to resume blockading maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports from 14 July at 4 p.m. ET. Mariners were advised to contact US naval forces on channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches.
CENTCOM said shortly after the latest boarding: ‘The Strait of Hormuz and the surrounding waters remain free and open, except for vessels attempting to violate America’s steel wall blockade.’
US Marines from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit boarded the motor tanker Wen Yao in the Gulf of Oman for verification purposes, according to Anadolu Agency. As of 17 July 2026, CENTCOM reported it had redirected three commercial vessels trying to run the blockade, disabled one that did not comply, and boarded one to ensure full compliance.
The cumulative toll is higher. The Crisis Group Strait of Hormuz tracker notes that under the current blockade US forces have directed 25 commercial vessels to turn around or return to an Iranian port. On the first day of the blockade alone, 14 April, six merchant vessels complied with US orders to turn back.
Tehran has branded the waterway an ‘invincible red line’ and said it will not allow any US interference. Iran’s state news agency reported overnight that seven people were killed in the latest US strikes, which targeted bridges in the south of the country.
Birol’s public statements have consistently pointed to the next few weeks as the period that will determine whether oil markets stabilise or tip into deficit. Any further disruption to the Bab el-Mandeb, the alternative Gulf export corridor, would close off the principal pressure-release valve the IEA has identified.
