The SpaceX stock price crash has wiped roughly a third of the value off Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) since it listed, with shares closing at $108.37 on 31 July 2026, according to Yahoo Finance. An investor who put £5,000 into the company one month ago would be sitting on a paper loss of around £1,600.
The stock now trades 19% below its IPO price of $135, having opened at $150 on its first day of trading, an 11% premium to the offer price. Nasdaq described the listing as the largest initial public offering in Wall Street history, with SpaceX raising $75 billion.
How SpaceX stock price crash unfolded after the IPO
The SpaceX S-1 filing submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) set the maximum offering price at $162.00 per share, covering up to 55,555,555 Class A shares, with an expected IPO price of $135.00. At the close on 31 July 2026, the implied market capitalisation stood at approximately $1.428 trillion, down from roughly $1.77 trillion at IPO.
The valuation concern was present from day one. At listing, Morningstar estimated the company was worth less than half its IPO target price, according to a report cited by the Nasdaq newsroom.
SpaceX pays no dividend. The company is lossmaking: trailing earnings per share stand at -$0.67, and net income available to common shareholders over the trailing twelve months was -$9.36 billion on revenue of $19.3 billion, per Yahoo Finance.
The underlying business: strong revenue, heavy reinvestment
The operational picture is more complex than a simple loss figure suggests. SpaceX reported total revenue of $18.67 billion for full-year 2025 in its S-1, up from $14.02 billion in 2024 and $10.39 billion in 2023. First-quarter 2026 revenue came in at $4.69 billion, against $4.07 billion in the same period a year earlier.
The Starlink connectivity segment is the engine. It generated $11.39 billion in revenue in 2025, up 49.8% from $7.60 billion in 2024, and delivered $4.42 billion in operating profit, with operating income rising 120% year-on-year. Connectivity gross margins improved from 37% in 2024 to 48% in 2025, according to OpenBook Analytics.
Starlink had 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries as of 31 March 2026, up from 8.9 million at end-2025 and 2.3 million at end-2023. The space segment added a further $3.20 billion in 2025 revenue, up 22.2% from $2.62 billion in 2024.
Reinvestment is running at an exceptional rate. According to valuation analyst Aswath Damodaran, citing S-1 prospectus data, SpaceX spent almost $14 billion in capital expenditure and almost $9 billion in R&D in 2025, roughly doubling reinvestment from 2024. The US government (NASA, the Department of Defence, and intelligence agencies) contributed $5.9 billion of 2025 revenue.
On an adjusted EBITDA basis SpaceX reported $6.58 billion for 2025. Even so, the EV/EBITDA multiple at the late-July 2026 share price was in the region of 220 to 230 times, per OpenBook Analytics. The trailing price-to-sales ratio had compressed to around 55 to 60 times from roughly 89 times at listing.
One structural complication for investors attempting to value individual business lines: the S-1 registration statement bundles Starlink and Starship into a single consolidated entity rather than separate financial segments, as noted by Exterra JSC in its prospectus review.
A paper loss is not a realised one. Investors who held through the opening-day premium and the subsequent slide have not locked in losses unless they have sold. The 32% decline from the post-listing peak is painful on paper; the underlying revenue trajectory and Starlink subscriber growth remain intact.
The binary for holders is clear: the consensus analyst 12-month price target sits at $236.71, per Yahoo Finance, implying more than double the current price. Getting there requires the market to accept a valuation that Morningstar flagged as excessive at $135. SPCX’s 52-week range runs from $107.01 to $225.64; how close the stock gets to either end will depend heavily on whether Starlink’s margin expansion continues through the rest of 2026.
