How the Iran War Is Accelerating EV Adoption in Ways That Neither the Industry Nor the Government Predicted

Rosco Jewell, a Sydney dealer who used to move about one used electric car every two months but now moves one every two weeks, was the first indication that something had changed rather than a government data release. His prices have increased by ten to twenty percent. He is unable to maintain inventory. On a single Saturday, a salesperson at Evolve Motors in Melbourne sold seven Teslas while witnessing customers actually line up in front of just one vehicle. At the beginning of the month, there were one hundred Teslas on the lot. Almost nothing by the end.

The EV story was supposed to quietly stall this year. The plan in Wolfsburg and Detroit up until late 2025 had been to retreat, write down billions of dollars in stranded battery investment, and sheepishly go back to internal combustion. Over the past year, EV-related write-offs totaling tens of billions were recorded by Ford, GM, and Stellantis. The same forecasters who had been declaring the EV boom dead were suddenly rewriting their slide decks after Iran, Hormuz, and the first $4 gasoline at U.S. pumps in four years. Listening to industry analysts now gives the impression that they were not anticipating this because they were focusing on the wrong factors. Instead of pump prices, they were keeping an eye on subsidies.

Asia moved the fastest, relying on the Strait for about 80% of its imported crude. In March, the number of EV registrations in South Korea more than doubled from the previous year. Japan has almost tripled. Flash-charging technology, which was already making gasoline appear slow before the war began, contributed to the 82.6% month-over-month increase in sales reported by Chinese manufacturers. VinFast in Vietnam reported a 127% year-over-year increase. Five years ago, the news that electric rickshaws were selling out in Pakistan would have seemed unreal. In Nepal, where EVs accounted for 76% of new car sales in 2024, the worst effects of the price shock have gone unnoticed. It’s difficult to ignore the fact that the nations that suffered the least were the ones that were farthest along.

With varying accents, the numbers from Europe tell a similar story. With 86,120 EVs sold in March, the UK set a record. In a matter of weeks, the percentage of EV searches on mobile.de, the biggest used car marketplace in Germany, tripled from 12% to 36%. Diesel sales fell from 14% to 10%, while Aramisauto in France saw its EV share almost double. In France, the number of new Tesla registrations increased threefold. Similar surges occurred in Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and all of the Nordic countries. In the weeks following February 28, Octopus Electric Vehicles in Britain recorded a 36% increase in leasing inquiries.

The fact that high oil prices are driving consumers toward electric vehicles is not what makes this moment unique; that aspect is predictable. The peculiar thing is that it is occurring despite, rather than as a result of, the actions of the majority of Western governments and automakers. EV incentives have been reduced by the Trump administration. Just as that wager seemed ill-timed due to the Iran War, Detroit turned back to combustion engines. When Julia Poliscanova of Transport & Environment said that it was annoying to keep learning that EVs are the structural solution for an oil-dependent transportation system, she succinctly summed it up. This whiplash may ultimately cost Detroit in particular.

The durability of this is still unknown. Some of the new customers will revert to their previous behaviors if oil prices return to normal. However, Euan Graham of Ember has contended that the two fossil fuel shocks in the last four years—Iran and Ukraine—mark a permanent change in the rate of adoption. That seems appropriate. EV buyers typically don’t return. When the next combustion-engine cycle arrives, it will lose a significant portion of its clientele.