Slowly moving across a field in Mount Vernon, Washington, a tractor sprays manure onto rows where squash will eventually sprout. This spring, the ancient, almost charming custom takes on an odd new significance. Farmers all over the nation are performing calculations they never would have thought to do, and the results don’t add up. Approximately 70% of American farmers cannot afford all the fertilizer they need for the 2026 season, according to a survey of over 5,700 producers published in mid-April by the American Farm Bureau Federation. It sounds almost too big to be true. It isn’t.
Oceans separate the cause. Tehran took action to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that once carried about one-third of the world’s fertilizer shipments, following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Oil went straight up, as it always does during a crisis. By late April, gas prices reached $4.12 per gallon, the highest since the start of the war, and modern nitrogen fertilizer is essentially a petroleum product under a different name. The urea bag rises with the crude. Farmers are the ones who understand that chain’s brutal simplicity the best.
The timing is what makes this moment more acute than previous price spikes. The prices of corn and soybeans have already dropped significantly; corn is currently at about $4.15 per bushel, compared to a peak of $6.86 in 2022, and soybeans are at about $10.30, compared to about $16.40. Thus, the squeeze is applied simultaneously from both ends. You’re getting less to sell and paying more to grow. The result is straightforward, according to Farm Bureau economist Faith Parum: when farmers are unable to apply full fertilizer rates, they either shift acreage or reduce nutrient use, both of which subtly reduce the yield for the following season.
The part that is worth enduring is the uneven distribution of pain. Before the war, 67% of farmers in the Midwest had already scheduled fertilizer; this could be a habit, a hedge, or just good fortune. Just 19% had in the South. Growers of cotton, rice, and peanuts, who rely heavily on supplemental nutrients, are currently the most vulnerable; over 80% of rice, cotton, and peanut producers reported not being able to afford what they require. Geographical location determining who weathers this and who doesn’t seems almost unfair. The farmers who were fortunate enough to purchase early now appear prophetic. They weren’t. They were only moments ago.
How long this lasts is still unknown. Despite the signing of a ceasefire and the resumption of ship traffic through the strait (more than twenty in recent days), no one in the industry appears to be willing to end the conflict. According to a North Dakota State University analysis, the harm to the local fertilizer infrastructure may keep prices high into 2027 and 2028. According to their middle-of-the-road scenario, urea will peak at about $784 per short ton, a 67% increase. In the worst case, it surpasses $996. These kinds of forecasts are usually correct in spirit but incorrect in detail.
As you watch this happen, you’ll notice how far away the trigger seems from the result. The outcome is a thinner nitrogen application on a field outside of Memphis, a petrochemical complex burning in Iran, a waterway that most Americans couldn’t locate on a map, and eventually a higher number on an Ohio grocery receipt. Food prices always follow oil prices, but there is a long enough lag that most people won’t notice the difference when it happens. Rural stress has a way of getting to the voting booth in the upcoming midterm elections.
The cruelest part is the clock. Mid-May marks the end of the planting season. These farmers are making decisions, one field at a time, in silence.
