S&P 500 open odds tilted bullish on Polymarket on 13 August, with traders pricing a 61% chance of a higher start to the session, Benzinga reported.
The contract, titled ‘S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 13?’, is one of a recurring series Benzinga runs on Polymarket pricing each trading day. Odds in the same franchise ran as high as 69% on 6 August and as low as 56% the day before this one, according to syndicated coverage of the series, putting the 61% reading for 13 August squarely within the recent range.
Cooling inflation, steady curve
The bullish lean came against a backdrop of easing price pressure. US headline CPI cooled to a 3.4% annual pace in July, down from 3.5% in June, with core inflation easing to 2.5% from 2.6%, per the companion Benzinga economics report linked from the original piece.
The labour market told a similar story. The US unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% in July from 4.2% the prior month, according to Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis data. Treasury yields, meanwhile, barely moved: the 10-year stood at 4.7% on 11 August against 4.72% previously, the FRED series shows, while the 2-year held at 4.22%. The 10-year/2-year spread was flat at 0.48 percentage points as of 12 August, per separate FRED data. None of that points to an imminent shift in Federal Reserve policy either way.
Chip results due after the close
The session carries one concrete corporate catalyst alongside the odds. Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) was due to report fiscal third-quarter results after the close on 13 August, according to Yahoo Finance. The chip-equipment maker’s most recent quarterly filing showed revenue of $7.91bn for the three months to 26 April 2026, per 10-Q filed with the SEC.
The shares went into the print quietly: AMAT last traded near $552.89 as of 12 August, little changed over 24 hours and down 0.93% across the trailing 20 sessions, within a range of $437.08 to $575.70, according to consolidated exchange data.
What to watch
The Polymarket contract itself settles on the direction of the S&P 500’s open on 13 August, giving traders a same-day read on whether the 61% lean was justified. Applied Materials’ after-market results the same day offer the more concrete data point for chip-equipment investors, following a quarter in which revenue rose from $7.01bn in the prior three months to $7.91bn.
This article is for information only and is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Markets move quickly; figures are correct as sourced at the time of writing. Always do your own research before making financial decisions.
