Ether has dropped more than 35% against Bitcoin over the past twelve months. The sell-off tracks the bearish structure that played out through 2024 and into 2025. The pair remains locked below the multi-year descending trend line that has capped every breakout attempt since 2022. That line preceded a nearly 70% decline between 2024 and 2025. It is doing the same work now.
ETH/BTC retested the trend line in August 2025. Rejection came near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-month exponential moving average. The pair has since slipped back below its 20-month EMA support near 0.034 BTC. Sellers still have the wheel.
Ethereum slides 35% against Bitcoin as technical structure deteriorates
If the weakness holds, the next downside target sits around 0.0176 BTC. That level lines up with the 2020 cycle bottom. It is roughly 40% below current rates. The move would not be unprecedented. The chart has been here before.
| Level | Price (BTC) | Status | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Multi-year trend line | Resistance | Rejected Aug 2025 | Caps breakout attempts since 2022 |
| 0.382 Fib / 50-month EMA | Confluence zone | Rejected | Confluence resistance held |
| 20-month EMA | 0.034 BTC | Broken | Support turned resistance |
| 2020 cycle low | 0.0176 BTC | Target | Down 40% from here |
The chart is not the only signal. Exchange reserve data is backing up the sell-side case. As of May, Binance held 3.62 million ETH in reserves. That figure accounts for roughly 24.6% of all Ether held across exchanges, according to CryptoQuant. Rising exchange balances usually mean more tokens are sitting available for sale. When demand does not absorb the supply, the price slips. Binance Ethereum reserves have been climbing. Bitcoin reserves on the same exchange have been falling.
Exchange data shows Ethereum slides 35% against Bitcoin amid rising sell pressure
Falling reserves typically suggest coins are being moved off exchanges into longer-term holding. Ether is not seeing that flow. Bitcoin is. The divergence in reserve behaviour lines up with the price action. Tighter exchange-side liquidity for Bitcoin, looser for Ethereum. One is being held. The other is being distributed.
The broader narrative has shifted as well. For years, Ether carried the
