Greggs’ share price fall continued on results day as the UK bakery chain reported underlying profit before tax down 9.4% to £171.9 million for the 52 weeks ended 27 December 2025, against £189.8 million a year earlier, according to the Greggs preliminary results filed via Investegate.
Shares in GRG fell 7.2% on the day management guided for profits to remain flat in 2026, extending a cumulative decline of 33% from recent highs.
What Is Driving the Greggs Share Price Fall
The underlying operating profit came in at £187.5 million, 4.0% lower than the £195.3 million reported for the prior year. Underlying operating profit margin contracted to 8.7%, from 9.7% in 2024.
Diluted earnings per share fell 10.7% to 122.8p. Management attributed the squeeze to cost inflation across wages and ingredients, pressures that have weighed on the broader UK consumer sector throughout the period.
Total sales rose 6.8% to £2.15bn. Company-managed shop like-for-like sales grew 2.4%, while the store estate reached 2,739 shops by the end of December 2025, with 121 net new openings over the year.
The results also disclosed a £4.5 million provision for a historic understatement of VAT, self-identified and reported to HMRC during the year. That charge sits outside the underlying figures.
Cash Generation and Dividends Hold Steady
Not all the numbers pointed downward. Diluted operating cash inflow per share rose 4.6% over the 52-week period, pointing to solid underlying cash conversion despite the profit dip. Net cash at year-end stood at £45.8 million, reflecting capital deployed into supply chain capacity.
The full-year dividend was held at 69p per share, comprising a final dividend of 50p, according to analysis published by Hargreaves Lansdown.
Greggs gained market share even as margins compressed. Its share of food-to-go visits rose 0.5 percentage points to 8.6% for the year to December 2025, using Circana data cited in the preliminary results. Chief executive Roisin Currie said the business ‘outperformed the wider market and increased its market share of visits.’
Greggs holds a 19.6% share of the UK food-to-go breakfast market, ahead of McDonald’s. Delivery, reported separately in the Greggs full-year 2024 results, grew 30.9% in that prior year and represented 6.7% of company-managed shop sales, with 1,556 shops offering the service.
The Greggs share price fall of 33% has pushed the stock to a valuation 29% below its 10-year median price-to-earnings ratio of 19.84. At £5–£7 per transaction, Greggs sits in a price bracket that has proven more resilient than casual dining during the current consumer downturn.
The UK food-to-go market is forecast to reach £24.9bn in 2026. MCA Insight, a specialist trade analyst, puts the sector’s growth rate at 3.4% year-on-year, slightly above the 3.3% figure in some forecasts; both sources agree the market is outpacing the wider eating-out sector.
The Greggs interim results for the 26 weeks ended 28 June 2025 showed operating profit down 7.1% to £70.4 million and profit before tax down 14.3% to £63.5 million, confirming the first-half pressure that carried into the full year.
Long-term expansion plans remain intact. Greggs is targeting 3,000 to 4,500 shops, against the current 2,739, and plans around 120 net new openings in 2026. Whether that estate growth can offset ongoing cost pressure is the central question heading into the year.
