The notifications started arriving in late February. Force majeure warnings from Far East suppliers, flagging raw material pressures and signalling cost increases ahead. For Freddie Miller, CEO at GTSE.co.uk, they confirmed what oil market watchers had feared: the inflationary wave hasn’t crested yet.
It’s still building.
Miller’s company sells cable ties, tapes, fixings and fastenings—unglamorous products that keep Britain’s trade sector functioning. Every single item depends on oil-derived materials. Nylon prices have climbed steadily since February. Polypropylene costs followed. Then freight expenses jumped as UK logistics firms introduced fuel surcharges and hiked container rates. “We’re closely monitoring the US-Iran war and its ongoing impact on global prices,” Miller explained. “Currently, trading remains buoyant and we’re managing the challenges as best we can given the volatile circumstances.”
That buoyancy masks a coming crunch. Most suppliers are still selling through inventory purchased at older prices, before geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel and Iran sent oil markets into sustained volatility. The gap between what businesses paid months ago and what they’ll pay for the next shipment has widened significantly.
Which means the real price increases haven’t hit yet.
“Our core products like cable ties, tapes, fixings, and fastenings, are all impacted by oil prices, on multiple levels,” Miller noted. “Nylon and polypropylene costs have been rising since late February, and whilst we haven’t seen supply shortages yet, we’ve received force majeure notifications from suppliers across the Far East, flagging raw material pressures and cost increases at their end. Freight costs have also risen. Most UK logistics providers have introduced fuel surcharges and increased container rates, which adds to our landed costs. We’re factoring this in and planning accordingly.”
The force majeure clauses—contractual get-outs allowing suppliers to delay or alter terms due to unforeseen circumstances—signal stress deeper in the supply chain. Polymer manufacturers in Asia face their own pressures: crude oil derivatives that form the basis of industrial plastics have tracked geopolitical instability closely. When tensions escalate, refining costs climb and production schedules tighten.
For UK businesses importing these materials, the lag works like this: orders placed in January and February reflected pre-escalation pricing. Those shipments are arriving now or sitting in warehouses. But orders placed in March and April—reflecting current market conditions—won’t land until summer. That’s when the sticker shock arrives for trade buyers and, eventually, consumers.
“Our view is that bigger cost increases to consumers are still to come,” Miller said. “Suppliers are largely selling through existing stock at older prices, so we expect another inflationary wave in the second half of the year. We’re working to get ahead of that now, committing to larger, earlier stock orders to secure supply, building an inventory buffer.”
That strategy—front-loading purchases to lock in current rates before they climb further—carries its own risks. Capital gets tied up in stock. Warehouse space fills quickly. If demand softens or geopolitical tensions ease unexpectedly, companies could find themselves holding expensive inventory in a falling market.
But Miller and others in the industrial supply sector are betting the other way. They’re wagering that oil-linked costs will remain elevated or climb higher, making today’s prices look attractive in hindsight.
The freight market adds another layer of uncertainty. Container rates from Asia to UK ports had stabilised after the pandemic-era chaos, but fuel surcharges reappeared in March as diesel costs tracked crude oil upward. Road haulage within the UK faces similar pressures. Every percentage point increase in fuel costs eventually filters through to the end price of a box of screws or a roll of tape.
Manufacturers and distributors across multiple sectors—not just industrial consumables—face identical calculations. Plastics packaging, automotive components, construction materials, even textiles: anything with petrochemical inputs carries exposure to oil market volatility. The difference lies in how quickly companies can adjust pricing and how much resistance they’ll face from customers already squeezed by previous inflationary cycles.
Miller’s approach involves transparency over surprise. “Internally, we’ve made sure every part of the business understands what’s happening and why, ensuring that all departments are all pulling in the same direction,” he said. “Externally, we’re being open with customers, setting expectations early and keeping them informed rather than letting cost changes come as a surprise. The situation remains uncertain and we’re not complacent about what the second half of the year may bring, but we’ll continue to adapt as things evolve.”
That communication strategy reflects a broader shift in supplier behaviour. During previous inflationary surges, many companies absorbed costs or delayed price increases, hoping market conditions would improve. This time, businesses are signalling changes earlier, spreading increases across multiple smaller adjustments rather than implementing sudden large jumps that might prompt customers to switch suppliers or delay purchases.
The timing complicates matters. Trade buyers often work on fixed-price contracts or quotations valid for 30, 60 or 90 days. If raw material costs shift significantly during that window, suppliers either honour the quoted price and absorb the loss, or renegotiate and risk damaging customer relationships. Some firms are shortening quotation validity periods or adding clauses that allow price adjustments if specific commodity indices move beyond certain thresholds.
Whether these strategies prove sufficient depends largely on factors beyond any individual company’s control. Oil prices remain sensitive to Middle East developments, where military actions, diplomatic negotiations and production decisions by major exporters can shift markets within hours. Freight costs hinge on fuel prices but also on capacity utilisation, port congestion and carrier pricing strategies.
For now, trading continues and warehouses fill with stock purchased at what may soon look like bargain prices. But the force majeure notifications sitting in Miller’s inbox tell a different story about what’s coming. The second half of the year will reveal whether businesses stockpiled enough, communicated clearly enough, and priced carefully enough to navigate the next wave.
The old stock won’t last forever. When it runs out, the real cost of geopolitical instability will arrive at checkouts and order forms across the UK.
