Predicting a EUR/GBP price is a tricky task, especially for beginner traders. When we speak about predicting, it does not mean we can tell the exact future prices. Traders and analysts try to predict currency pair trends and potential scenarios, which is much more viable. They employ tactics such as fundamental analysis and technical analysis to determine what price might do in the near future. To predict the pound against euro pair currency rates for 2025, we have to analyze major economic and geopolitical events and their impact on price. We will also add some technical perspective using charts and indicators to make our predictions more accurate.
What is the EUR/GBP Exchange Rate?
The exchange rate of EUR/GBP represents how many pounds you need to buy 1 euro. This rate is important for inventors, traders, and travelers who are traveling from the eurozone to the UK or back. Its rate is affected by many macroeconomic factors like economic policies, trade agreements, and geopolitical events. All these topics are part of FX trading core concepts included in this FX trading explained for beginners guide, where technical analysis is also explained in great detail. Technical analysis simply means using price charts and various tools such as indicators to try to make sense of price movements and detect potential trends. Combined with fundamental analysis, which includes macroeconomic factors.
Technical analysis 2024: EUR/GBP performance
In 2024, EUR/GBP has been moving mostly upwards, meaning it has been in an uptrend. It started an uptrend in January 2024 and had a strong upward impulse movement. The price was mostly in an uptrend in 2024 and started to pull back at the end of 2024. From January 21 till today, the price started to move upward, and we might see it test the nearest resistance zone at the 1.20 price level. This is because the price is moving towards this level and there are no other significant support and resistance zones between the price and this important psychological level. However, basing our analysis only on technical analysis won’t give accurate results, as price reacts to economic events and factors more than technical levels.
Fundamental factors influencing EUR/GBP in 2025
Let’s start with recent fundamental factors that were important in 2024 to anticipate potential scenarios for 2025. Brexit aftermath still plagues GBP pairs as uncertainties and regulatory disruptions continue to weigh on the pound still. Interest rates are probably one of the most important factors when it comes to currencies, and there is lots of buzz going on around the February decision of the Bank of England. BOE has cut interest rates twice in August 2024 making it 4.75%. It usually cuts or increases rates by 0.25% and the next change should be similar. Since the weight on mortgage debts is too high with current rates, many experts believe BOE might cut the rates in February 2025, and we might see 4.5% which should make GBP even weaker against the euro. If this is the scenario that will unfold, then it aligns with our technical analysis, and we might see a sharp upward impulse from February.
Political and geopolitical factors
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting major war hit Europe harder, especially in the energy sector. The UK’s energy dependence also strained its economy. As we can see from the technical analysis, the British Pound has been losing its value against the euro in 2024, and it started similar price action at the beginning of 2025. Now, since Trump is trying to end the Russia-Ukraine war as soon as possible, this will have profound consequences on both the eurozone and the UK’s economies. It is more likely that the euro should be affected more than the GBP, meaning, the GBP could continue to lose its ground against the euro in 2025. If we trust the UK’s unemployment statistics, the country has a rise in unemployment rates. Lower interest rates usually boost the economy as companies can take loans cheaply which should lower unemployment rates in a short period, and this might be one of the reasons why BOE might lower interest rates in February.
Predictions for GBP/EUR in 2025: A conclusion
In the end, we have both fundamental and technical factors indicating that the most likely scenario for the EUR/GBP pair is a continuation of the current trend. If the BOE lowers interest rates further, it will weaken the GBP against the EUR even further, boosting the EUR/GBP uptrend. However, we can never be 100% sure that certain events happen especially in financial markets which are often random, and all analysis arguments are educated guesses of what is going on now and how it could affect the near future. So far, both technical and fundamental factors indicate that it is highly likely that EUR/GBP uptrend will continue in 2025 as well, just like it happened in 2024.
