A senior energy analyst was recently scrolling through a chart that displayed the performance of hydrogen ETFs over the last three years on the 41st floor of an office tower in Midtown Manhattan. After dipping sharply, the line flattened out and started to edge upward once more. With the sun bouncing off the Hudson, he reclined in his chair and muttered something about “cycles.” It wasn’t exactly excitement. It’s more like cautious conviction.
The past few years have not been easy for green hydrogen. What had once been one of Wall Street’s most breathless themes was sucked out by rising interest rates, cheaper natural gas, and stalled infrastructure projects. During a 12-month period, the Global X Hydrogen ETF experienced a 40% decline. A large number of individual investors left. But some of the best analysts on Wall Street are quietly settling back in.
| Category | Details |
|---|---|
| Company | Linde plc |
| Founded | 1879 (as Linde AG) |
| Headquarters | Woking, United Kingdom |
| Sector | Industrial gases, clean hydrogen, energy infrastructure |
| Market Position | One of the world’s largest industrial gas suppliers |
| Green Hydrogen Projects | Electrolyzer facilities in Europe and the U.S. |
| Reference Website | https://www.linde.com |
Perhaps part of the appeal is the pessimism itself. The 2020 hydrogen boom made too many promises in too short a time. Billions were promised by governments. The number of startups increased. Valuations skyrocketed. Then reality set in: limited demand, costly electrolyzers, and slow permitting. Only a small percentage of the projects that were announced during that flurry are still underway today. Investors, however, appear to think that the survivors are stronger as a result.
Scale is frequently where the argument starts. According to estimates cited by analysts at a number of large banks, the hydrogen market may grow to a value of $1.4 trillion yearly by 2050. Of course, forecasts are notoriously optimistic. Nevertheless, the implementation of hydrogen strategies by more than 60 governments is encouraging the long-term adoption of policy frameworks. As this develops, it seems that hydrogen is becoming more than just a climate talking point; it is becoming a geopolitical one.
The true target is still heavy industry. Industries that are difficult to plug into a battery include long-distance shipping, steel mills, and fertilizer manufacturers. New pilot plants that combine electrolysis and renewable energy to split water into hydrogen and oxygen are humming next to petrochemical complexes in Louisiana and along the Gulf Coast. The equipment isn’t very glitzy. compressors, valves, and pipes. However, it has an industrial vibe that solar farms don’t always have.
Analysts are coming full circle because of companies like Linde plc. Linde has been providing gases to manufacturers and refineries for over a century, in contrast to pure-play hydrogen startups. Its green hydrogen initiatives are extensions of an already-existing industrial backbone, including massive electrolyzers in Germany and the United States. That familiarity is frequently preferred by investors.
Plug Power Inc. is another name that has drawn harsh criticism. The stock is still well below its 2021 peak, and in 2025, investors were alarmed by liquidity issues. Nevertheless, the business secured runway to continue expanding vertically integrated hydrogen production by raising hundreds of millions from institutional backers. It’s still unclear if Plug can turn a profit over the long run. However, industry analysts contend that patience is sometimes necessary for scale.
Another perspective is provided by Bloom Energy. Data centers and industrial clients are served by Bloom Energy Corporation, which specializes in solid oxide fuel cells. Certain investors see hydrogen-based systems as a supplementary solution as artificial intelligence drives up the demand for electricity. The continuous mechanical hum that could be heard while standing outside a data center in California recently served as a reminder that discussions about clean energy eventually intersect with actual infrastructure.
The macro backdrop matters too. According to a Bloomberg report from the previous year, green hydrogen may become more competitive if electricity prices keep rising. That may seem counterintuitive, but keep in mind that while grid constraints drive up spot prices, the long-term costs of renewable power have been declining. When there is an excess of renewable energy, hydrogen can be produced and used as storage. Theoretically, anyway.
There are still many skeptics. Hydrogen is infamously inefficient; energy is lost during the process of turning electricity into hydrogen and back again. Storage and transportation infrastructure is still lacking. Additionally, the capital intensity is very high. Only diversified giants with robust balance sheets might make it through the protracted build-out phase. Particularly if credit tightens once more, smaller businesses might face difficulties.
However, experts frequently refer to this period as the trough of disillusionment, which comes after the hype but before maturity. The less strong projects have been put on hold. Capital is more picky. Governments are increasing incentives and instituting discipline by linking subsidies to domestic manufacturing and emissions targets. Speculative exuberance appears to be less appealing to investors than a slower, more realistic rollout.
Additionally, an environmental calculus is being developed. Hydrogen provides one of the few ways to decarbonize the production of ammonia and some refining operations as nations work toward net-zero commitments. Emissions targets become mathematically challenging without it. Long-term capital allocation is shaped by this reality, which persists in policy circles.
It’s difficult to ignore how frequently the term “long duration” is used in discussions about hydrogen these days. Analysts aren’t discussing fast flips. They are talking about supply contracts that are measured in decades, as well as infrastructure arcs that span ten to twenty years. Compared to the meme-stock era, the tone feels different. Reduced adrenaline. Extra engineering.
Wall Street has, of course, made mistakes in the past. Bankruptcies and unfulfilled promises abound in clean-tech cycles. Policy changes, fluctuations in commodity prices, and technological obstacles could be new challenges for green hydrogen. Whether anticipated demand will materialize quickly enough to warrant current investments is still up in the air.
But there was a sense of measured optimism returning as one stood in that Manhattan office and watched the chart tilt upward ever so slightly. Not bliss. Not faith without reason. Simply acknowledging that some energy transitions are more drawn out than they appear in the headlines. Furthermore, green hydrogen is starting to resemble a well-thought-out wager on industrial reinvention rather than a passing trend for analysts prepared to withstand volatility.
