The UK’s 2030 ambitions for carbon capture, usage, and storage (CCUS) face significant challenges, as highlighted by a recent National Audit Office (NAO) report. The report questions the government’s ability to meet its targets due to the inherent complexity and emerging nature of CCUS technology. Despite previous attempts, progress has been sluggish, raising doubts about the feasibility of achieving net zero goals through CCUS alone.
- The National Audit Office warns that the UK will struggle to meet its 2030 CCUS targets.
- The first phase of the CCUS programme is lagging, with less than a quarter of the target likely achievable.
- Current governmental strategies rely heavily on CCUS, yet previous efforts to launch similar programmes have failed.
- A significant gap exists in the development of greenhouse gas removal projects.
The UK’s ambitions to lead in carbon capture, usage, and storage (CCUS) by 2030 are being questioned following an unsettling analysis by the National Audit Office (NAO). The government had laid out plans under the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) to capture and store up to 78 billion tonnes of carbon in geological formations under the North and Irish Seas. However, the NAO’s findings suggest a gloomy outlook, primarily due to the slow progress in Phase 1 of the programme.
Initially, the UK government pledged £20 billion to bolster early CCUS projects, hoping for a yearly capacity of 8.5 million tonnes of CO2 storage through its ‘Track-1’ initiative. Despite the investment, which included £630 million in grants, the timeline for achieving these targets remains shaky. Eight projects under ‘Track-1’ have fallen short, with realisation figures pointing to an achievement of less than a quarter of the original 2030 goal.
Adding to the concerns is the total reliance on CCUS as a solution for reaching net zero, without credible alternative pathways. The DESNZ’s latest initiatives, involving eight projects across two clusters, are showing limited progress, casting doubt on the sufficiency of these plans. Remarkably, this is not a novel challenge, as the UK had earlier attempts in 2012 and 2017 to initiate similar technologies, which were ultimately shelved and have now impacted industry confidence.
An alarming revelation from the NAO’s report is the lack of greenhouse gas removal (GGR) projects under current negotiations within ‘Track-1’. The government’s target to capture and store 5 million tonnes of CO2 annually from GGR by 2030 remains unattainable, as no dedicated bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) projects are under discussion.
The NAO has reiterated the need for the DESNZ and HM Treasury to balance risks wisely, as the deployment of large-scale CCUS facilities is fraught with challenges. The report highlights the necessity of defining risk allocations between the government and private investors, enhancing the odds of overcoming the commercial barriers. Lessons from previous failures are being adapted, but the novel complexities introduced with the current approach require acute management of negotiations across diverse technologies.
The UK faces significant hurdles in achieving its CCUS targets by 2030, with current strategies showing limited success and progress.
