The UK’s GDP saw no change in April 2024, aligning with forecasts.
- A prior growth of 0.4% in March marks an end to the technical recession.
- Wet weather significantly hampered retail sales, contributing to the stagnant GDP.
- Quarterly GDP growth was 0.6% from January to March 2024, reversing a previous decline.
- Political responses vary as the economy presents mixed signals post-Conservative manifesto.
The UK’s real gross domestic product (GDP) for April 2024 remained unchanged, a situation that had been anticipated by analysts. This outcome follows a 0.4% growth registered in March 2024, which notably marked the conclusion of the technical recession that had hindered the economy in prior months. This development reflects the complexities of the nation’s economic journey amidst fluctuating external conditions.
One of the significant factors contributing to the stagnation was a substantial decline in retail sales, attributed to poor weather conditions which deterred consumer footfall in shopping areas. Retail sales volumes fell by 2.3% in April, compounding a 0.2% fall witnessed in March. This downturn in retail was the most considerable negative influence on services growth, although services overall saw a modest 0.2% increase, continuing a trend of monthly growth in this sector.
Despite the stagnation in monthly GDP, the quarterly figures present a more optimistic perspective. Between January and March 2024, the GDP experienced a rise of 0.6%, a recovery from the 0.3% decline between October and December 2023. This growth is a positive signal amidst the diverse challenges facing the economy and underscores the nuanced nature of economic recovery trajectories.
The political landscape adds an additional layer of complexity to these economic indicators. The release of the Conservative party’s manifesto, boasting reduced inflation and increased real wages, casts a hopeful vision for economic recovery. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has committed to promoting apprenticeships and supporting local high streets. In contrast, the Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves expressed scepticism, highlighting the lack of growth as evidence of the economy stalling, despite claims of progress.
The UK’s economic outlook remains uncertain with external factors and political narratives shaping its trajectory.
