Engineers from the University of Bath and Erzurum Technical University have developed a pioneering national flood model for Türkiye.
- Utilising machine learning, the model aims to assess extreme rainfall risks in various terrains, including coastal plains and mountainous regions.
- The project addresses the increasing severity of floods, offering more accurate design models for critical infrastructure amidst climate change impacts.
- New Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) models will replace outdated data to aid hydrologists, planners, and constructors in Türkiye.
- The research, receiving £76,000 from the British Council, will last two years and contribute to future planning guidelines for infrastructure.
Engineers from the University of Bath, in collaboration with Erzurum Technical University, are at the forefront of developing a groundbreaking national flood model for Türkiye. This model, unique on a national scale, employs machine learning to assess and predict extreme rainfall risks across the country’s diverse terrains, ranging from coastal plains to mountainous regions.
This innovative approach is crucial as Türkiye experiences increasingly severe floods, exacerbated by climate change. The model provides updated data for infrastructures’ design, replacing obsolete information that underestimates current climate extremes. The project aims to enhance protection for communities and critical infrastructure by offering precise risk assessments and guidelines.
A significant aspect of the research involves the generation of new Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) models. These models are essential for designing infrastructure capable of withstanding future climate-induced variations. Unlike traditional models that assume weather extremes remain constant over time, these newly developed models account for the non-stationarity of current weather patterns, providing more accurate and robust data.
The initiative is funded by a £76,000 grant from the British Council and is expected to contribute significantly to infrastructure planning and risk management in Türkiye over the next two years. The engineers intend to integrate the findings into future planning guidelines, thereby influencing policy and construction standards.
Reflecting on recent history, Türkiye’s urgent need for a comprehensive flood model was highlighted by the devastating floods in Şanlıurfa and Adıyaman provinces, which followed a severe earthquake in the region. These events underscored the necessity for improved flood prediction capabilities and infrastructure resilience.
The project leaders, including Thomas Kjeldsen from the University of Bath, emphasize the importance of this model in understanding the climatic drivers of extreme rainfall events. By tracking moisture sources and their impacts on different regions, they aim to categorize flooding events accurately and develop guidelines that reflect the new weather extremes.
Professor Fatih Tosunoğlu of Erzurum Technical University notes that extreme rainfall events have become more frequent and intense due to climate change. He highlights that the advancements brought by the model will significantly reduce risks to people and infrastructure, offering better preparedness for future extreme weather events.
The collaboration between these academic institutions signifies a promising academic partnership between Türkiye and the UK, with potential applications of the model in other countries facing similar climate challenges.
This pioneering research marks a significant advancement in flood modelling, paving the way for enhanced infrastructure resilience in Türkiye and beyond.
