The Advanced Propulsion Centre UK (APC) report forecasts a significant growth opportunity in the heavy duty vehicle (HDV) sector as it moves towards net-zero emissions.
- UK is projected to produce nearly 35,000 HGVs and buses by 2035, with 75% being zero-emission vehicles.
- A £2.4bn opportunity lies in developing key components for zero-emission HDVs like battery packs and fuel cell systems.
- The APC underscores the necessity for an improved charging and hydrogen refuelling infrastructure to meet future demands.
- Government and industry collaboration will be crucial for the UK to lead in HDV and transport sectors.
The Advanced Propulsion Centre UK (APC) has unveiled an insight report revealing that the heavy duty vehicle (HDV) sector in the UK presents a £2.4bn growth opportunity as it moves towards net-zero emissions. The report, titled ‘UK HDV Supply Chain Opportunities to 2035’, provides a forecast where the UK is expected to manufacture almost 35,000 heavy goods vehicles and buses by 2035, with a remarkable 75% of these vehicles predicted to be zero-emission at the tailpipe.
The APC’s projections highlight varying pathways to achieving net-zero within the HDV market, indicating a distribution of 50% battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 25% fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), 22% non-fossil fuel internal combustion engines (ICEs), and 3% traditional diesel ICEs. These projections present significant opportunities across a plethora of high-value components necessary for zero-emission HDVs manufactured in the UK, such as battery packs, electric drive units, fuel cell systems, hydrogen tanks, and high-power converters.
Dr Hadi Moztarzadeh, head of technology trends at the APC, disclosed, “Across these five component areas, we’ve identified an estimated UK opportunity of £2.4bn, with £870m value in just fuel cell systems alone, and £790m in batteries.” This forecasted opportunity is a substantial increase compared to the £480m projected for 2025 and £1.5bn in 2030. The unlocking of this value will necessitate close cooperation between the UK government and industry stakeholders.
Aditya Thiru, one of the authors of the report, emphasised the importance of collaboration. He highlighted that businesses, especially those within the local automotive supply chain, are poised to take advantage of these opportunities, enabling the UK to maintain a leadership position across the HDV and transport sectors, particularly in fuel cell technologies.
However, achieving the projected 2035 and 2040 demands will require a significant upgrade in infrastructure. Thiru noted the critical need to develop a ‘minimum viable’ network for charging and hydrogen refuelling infrastructures for heavy goods vehicles and coaches. Presently, the Clean Hydrogen Partnership reports that there are only six hydrogen refuelling stations in the UK, highlighting the extent of the effort required to meet future demands.
The UK HDV sector’s transition to net-zero offers a substantial opportunity, hinging on effective collaboration and infrastructure development.
