A recent survey exposes generational differences in overconfidence among UK adults, with baby boomers leading significantly.
- The study by the Behavioural Insights Team surveyed over 2,000 adults and focused on ‘calibration’ and overconfidence.
- Findings show 81% of participants are overconfident, with baby boomers particularly prone compared to younger generations.
- Generational analysis reveals that Gen Zs and millennials exhibit better calibration than older demographics.
- The study has implications for decision-making in politics, economics, and crisis response.
In a comprehensive survey conducted by the Behavioural Insights Team, over 2,000 UK adults were assessed for their levels of overconfidence in relation to calibration, a term describing the alignment between one’s confidence and correctness. The findings indicate a significant generational disparity, with baby boomers (aged 60-78) displaying the highest levels of overconfidence at 84%, compared to 75% of Gen Zs (aged 18-27) and 79% of millennials (aged 28-43). The concept of calibration is crucial, as it differentiates individuals who are generally right when confident from those who are ‘confidently wrong.’
The survey methodology involved presenting participants with 30 statements, for which they had to determine the truthfulness and express their confidence levels, ranging from 50% to 100%. The results showed a stark contrast, where 81% of respondents were overconfident, possessing confidence levels exceeding their actual correctness by at least 5 percentage points. Notably, only 15% of the participants were well-calibrated, reflecting accurate self-assessment, while about 3% were underconfident, often correct yet doubting their accuracy.
The research underscored the pervasive nature of overconfidence, a significant issue highlighted during the UK’s Covid inquiry, which revealed the detrimental impact of overconfident decision-making. Given the survey’s insights, Dr Mark Egan, Principal Research Advisor at BIT, emphasised the rarity and value of well-calibrated individuals, whose cautious approach to their knowledge is beneficial across various sectors. The survey highlights a pressing need to address overconfidence, especially in fields like politics and business, where misjudgments can have substantial consequences.
An illustrative example from the survey involved determining whether Lagos is the capital of Nigeria. Despite 85% of respondents expressing confidence in their answer, only 30% correctly identified Abuja as the capital, indicating a 55% calibration gap. Similarly, generational variance was evident when respondents were questioned about Jimmy Donalson, better known as YouTuber Mr Beast. Under-25s demonstrated higher accuracy and appropriate confidence compared to those over 55, marking a substantial calibration gap among the older group.
The survey highlights significant generational differences in overconfidence, urging a critical evaluation of decision-making practices across various domains.
