Bitcoin profit-taking accelerated as the price climbed to a three-month high. Holders realised 14,600 BTC in profits on Monday, worth $1.1 billion, according to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. That marks the highest single day of Bitcoin profit-taking since 10 December, when BTC traded above $90,000.
The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, an onchain metric tracking wallets that have held BTC for under 155 days, rose above 1. That level signals clear profit-taking territory. Holders are now realising more than 20,000 BTC in net profits on a 30-day rolling basis, the first positive reading since 22 December 2025. The preceding weeks saw heavy net losses, reaching 398,000 BTC in February and March.
Bitcoin profit-taking spike signals local top risk
Spikes in realised profit during bear markets typically signal local price tops or sideways action. Moreno said demand has not kept pace. BTC remains in a bear market despite the rally. The pattern is consistent with prior cycles where profit-taking accelerates into rallies that fail to draw sustained inflows.
| Metric | Latest | Prior Period | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Realised Profit (Monday) | 14,600 BTC | 398,000 BTC net loss (Feb-Mar) | Positive |
| 30-Day Net Profit | 20,000+ BTC | Negative since Dec 22 | First positive |
| STH-SOPR | Above 1 | Below 1 (Feb-Mar) | Profit-taking zone |
| Daily Profit (10 Dec) | 14,600 BTC | Higher (BTC above $90k) | Highest since |
ETF inflows stay strong, but analysts split on outlook
Inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds remained strong this week. Four consecutive days of positive inflows preceded a $268.5 million outflow on Friday, according to Farside data. Weekly inflows surged past $1 billion before the Friday reversal.
Analysts are divided on whether BTC has bottomed. Michael Terpin, an early Bitcoin investor, told Cointelegraph that BTC could bottom at $57,000 in October 2026, based on historic patterns where the cycle low hits roughly one year after the cycle top. Terpin said the chance of Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 in 2026 is unlikely.
The read
The onchain data shows short-term holders locking gains into the rally. That pattern has historically marked local tops in bear markets, not the start of sustained recoveries. The systematic crowd is reducing risk after the April bounce. Real money is not chasing it yet.
The ETF flows are the counterpoint. $1 billion in weekly inflows is institutional interest, even with Friday’s reversal. Whether that demand absorbs the Bitcoin profit-taking from short-term holders is the question. The STH-SOPR sitting above 1 says supply is coming. The ETF tape says some bid is still there. What’s missing is the broad-based conviction that marked prior cycle lows.
What’s next
The next test is whether the inflows resume after the Friday pause. If the 30-day net profit reading keeps climbing and the ETF bid fades, the rally stalls. If institutional flows accelerate and absorb the Bitcoin profit-taking, the floor holds. October 2026 is the date Terpin pencilled in for a deeper low. That’s 18 months out. Plenty of time for the cycle to prove him right or wrong.
This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should not act on any information contained here without first consulting an authorised financial adviser. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
