Bitcoin options bets target $115K by December expiry. The call options stack up at Deribit shows $1.85 billion sitting at strikes of $115,000 and higher for the 25 December contract. The put-to-call split is running 56% skewed towards calls. Question is whether that setup is conviction or just the hedging crowd working the tails.
Bitcoin options bets target $115K by December expiry
According to wire reports, roughly $6 billion in Bitcoin options open interest sits on the December expiry, with Deribit holding a 92% share of that notional. The price is up 33% since the February low at $60,130. The move has brought the macro books back into longer-dated structures. Half of the open interest ties to long-shot strikes used for tail hedging or neutral strategies that do not require large directional moves to pay.
The call side shows $1.85 billion in open interest at $115,000 and above. The put side shows $1 billion at $55,000 and below. Both tails sit at roughly 50% of their respective segments. If the call stack looks optimistic, the put stack looks equally extreme in the other direction.
| Metric | Calls | Puts |
|---|---|---|
| Total OI (Dec expiry) | $3.3bn | $2.1bn |
| Strikes $115K+ | $1.85bn | n/a |
| Strikes $55K and below | n/a | $1.0bn |
| Skew to calls | 56% | – |
A December $120,000 call costs $2,202 on Deribit as of 7 May. That price buys unlimited upside exposure to one Bitcoin at $120,000 or higher on expiry. Cheap protection. The fast money uses these structures to lever tail scenarios without holding spot. The long-only community uses them to hedge concentration risk in the core book without selling down. The contract does not tell you who is holding it.
The skew metric and what the desks are pricing
The options skew at Deribit is running at a 9% premium for puts relative to equivalent calls on six-month tenors. That marks moderate fear of downside. Neutral skew runs between -6% and +6%. The current read sits just outside that band. The rates desks are pricing some downside gamma, but not panic levels. The rally to $80,000 has not shifted the skew materially. Positioning remains cautious.
The put-to-call ratio in crypto options has always run skewed towards calls. Crypto traders are structurally long. The current setup does not deviate far from the norm. The high notional in extreme strikes does not, on its own, signal overconfidence. It signals hedging activity and the roll of expiring positions into the next quarterly cycle. The systematic crowd uses December as a year-end anchor. Flow concentrates there.
What the $6 billion in open interest actually measures
Open interest at stated strikes does not translate one-to-one into realised value at expiry. A large portion of the December book will close or roll before 25 December. The $6 billion figure captures current positioning, not final settlement exposure. The actual value at expiry will be lower, depending on how much of the tail gets cut as the contract approaches maturity and theta decay accelerates.
The Bank for International Settlements tracks crypto derivatives growth in its quarterly reviews. The notional in Bitcoin options has expanded steadily since 2020. The December expiry sits within that trend. The concentration at extreme strikes reflects the maturity of the market structure rather than a shift in sentiment. Hedging flows now account for a larger share of total volume than they did two years ago.
Cross-asset context and what Bitcoin options bets signal
The London Stock Exchange lists several crypto-related instruments, though the majority of options flow still runs through offshore venues. The regulatory posture in the UK remains cautious. The Financial Conduct Authority maintains restrictions on retail crypto derivatives. Institutional participation happens, but largely outside the domestic regulatory perimeter.
The read from the December options stack is that the market is pricing a wide range of outcomes, not betting on a single path. The balance between extreme calls and extreme puts suggests two-way risk rather than one-way conviction. The 9% put premium indicates that the professional books are not chasing upside without acknowledging downside scenarios. That is not the posture of a market running hot.
Next catalyst: the quarterly expiry cycle rolls into September contracts in late May. That is when the next wave of positioning comes through and the December stack starts to narrow.
This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should not act on any information contained here without first consulting an authorised financial adviser. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
