Bitcoin falls below $80K. The drop came Thursday after the spot price hit resistance at $82,800 and reversed. The rejection triggered a pullback that took BTC down to $79,800, but spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund inflows suggest the correction may not run far.
Weekly inflows into spot BTC ETFs reached $1.05 billion, the strongest weekly intake since the third week of January. That is the first time since January that the weekly figure has topped $1 billion. A positive close Friday would confirm the largest weekly ETF inflow return in nearly four months. The flow is absorbing selling pressure.
Bitcoin falls below $80K on bearish divergence
The move lower as Bitcoin falls below $80K lines up with bearish divergences on the RSI across the one-hour and four-hour charts. A bearish divergence forms when price makes higher highs whilst the RSI weakens. It signals fading buying momentum during a rally. The pattern typically precedes a correction.
The question is whether the weekly open at $78,500 holds when Bitcoin falls below $80K. Below that level, the key technical support range sits between $76,000 and $78,000. That zone aligns with the daily fair value gap and the 200-day exponential moving average. The fair value gap marks an area where price moved sharply with limited trading activity, leaving an imbalance that often becomes a liquidity zone during retracements.
| Level | Price | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | $82,800 | Recent high | Rejection point |
| Weekly open | $78,500 | Short-term support | Bull defence line |
| FVG zone | $76,000-$78,000 | Major support | 200-day EMA cluster |
| Deeper support | $74,700-$76,300 | Secondary zone | If selling continues |
The cluster of the 200-day moving average and exponential moving average is acting as resistance above where Bitcoin falls below $80K, according to crypto trader Jelle. Jelle identified $78,000 as the first major support area. A retest of the 200-day moving average could allow Bitcoin to retest higher price targets, the trader said.
Crypto trader Killa XBT identified the $76,300 to $74,700 range as a deeper support zone if selling pressure continues. The trader pointed to the weekly open near $78,500 as the main short-term level that bulls are attempting to defend.
ETF demand may curb the correction
Spot Bitcoin ETF demand strengthened sharply this week. Net inflows reached $1.05 billion, marking the strongest weekly intake since the third week of January. Data from SoSoValue shows the weekly figure breached the $1 billion mark for the first time since January.
Swissblock data shows that the Bitcoin Risk Index has reset to near zero, whilst ETF net flows turned positive again at roughly 3,000 BTC. Historically, elevated risk readings aligned with ETF outflows and heavier selling pressure across the market. The resets into the low-risk zone often coincided with renewed accumulation near major support clusters.
The analysis added that synchronisation is still in place. Even when the Risk Index ticked slightly higher last week, ETF selling appeared briefly, but accumulation quickly resumed. That tells us ETF demand is absorbing selling pressure. This remains a flow-driven breakout, according to the analysis.
Retest or rebound
The technical setup suggests BTC could retest the fair value gap zone between $76,000 and $78,000 before attempting another rebound above its recent high at $82,800. If the correction continues, that zone becomes the line the rates desks are watching. Hold it and the bid returns. Break it and the macro books reload shorts.
The RSI divergence on the four-hour chart has been playing out over the past 48 hours. The spot price peaked at $82,800 on Wednesday, reversed, and took out the $80,000 level by Thursday afternoon. The pullback is ordinary after a run from the mid-$70,000s earlier in the week. The question is whether the ETF flow is large enough to absorb the selling pressure and stabilise the spot price above the $78,500 weekly open.
Data from Cointelegraph and TradingView shows the four-hour RSI weakening across lower timeframes whilst price made higher highs. That is textbook bearish divergence. The pattern typically resolves with a correction. The size of the correction depends on whether support at $78,500 holds or whether the fair value gap below gets retested.
Next catalyst: whether the weekly close confirms the $1.05 billion ETF inflow. That is Friday. If the flow holds, the correction may be short-lived. If it reverses, the retest of $76,000 to $78,000 becomes more likely.
This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should not act on any information contained here without first consulting an authorised financial adviser. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
