Figure Technology is pushing beyond home equity lending into blockchain-backed credit markets, with Bernstein sizing the Figure tokenized credit opportunity at roughly $4 trillion. The stock climbed nearly 10% over the past month but still trades below the firm’s $67 price target, which implies 67% upside from current levels.
Bernstein reiterated its Outperform rating on Figure in a research note published Tuesday. The case rests on the company’s shift from a home equity line of credit originator into a broader platform spanning blockchain infrastructure and AI-driven credit. The Figure tokenized credit model converts loans into tradable onchain assets that settle in real time. Bernstein puts the addressable market at around $4 trillion, well beyond the traditional HELOC lending space Figure started in.
Figure tokenized credit platform spans auto to HELOC
April loan volumes hit $1.34 billion, up 108% year on year, the second consecutive month above $1 billion for the Figure tokenized credit pipeline. Bernstein projects total loan volumes will reach $16.5 billion by 2027, up from $8.4 billion pencilled in for 2025. That assumes the shift from origination to onchain settlement continues to gain traction across multiple credit segments.
| Metric | Latest | Prior | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| April loan volume | $1.34bn | $0.64bn (YoY) | +108% |
| 2025 volume projection | $8.4bn | n/a | n/a |
| 2027 volume projection | $16.5bn | n/a | n/a |
| Price target | $67 | n/a | +67% implied |
The $4 trillion Figure tokenized credit addressable market spans mortgages, auto loans, HELOCs, and small-business credit. These are loan categories currently settled through traditional origination channels. Bernstein’s estimate refers to annual credit origination volume that could eventually move onchain as tokenized products. Whether that happens at scale depends on adoption rates across lenders, regulators, and the infrastructure layer backing settlement.
RWA market still early, but moving
Tokenized credit sits within the broader real-world asset category. The Figure tokenized credit platform sits at roughly $5.5 billion across the broader RWA market today, according to industry data. That is a material gap between current adoption and the longer-term opportunity Bernstein is pricing in. Other projects are building similar infrastructure. Centrifuge has expanded its decentralised finance platform to include tokenized credit and US Treasury products across new blockchain networks, connecting institutional-grade assets with DeFi liquidity pools.
Figure has moved into auto loans through its Hastra ecosystem, where tokenized credit products are designed to plug into decentralised finance and broader blockchain markets. The logic is straightforward: convert loan origination into onchain settlement and you compress the time and cost between issuance and trading. Whether the infrastructure matures fast enough to justify the valuation is the question the market is pricing.
Bernstein holds $67 target on volume growth
Bernstein’s $67 price target assumes loan volumes continue climbing at the pace seen over the past two quarters. The firm expects Figure to scale beyond its HELOC base into multiple credit verticals, with tokenization acting as the structural shift that supports margin expansion and capital efficiency. The stock has gained ground over the past month but still trades well below the target, implying the market is pricing in execution risk around the blockchain infrastructure build-out.
The London Stock Exchange has been running its own tokenized asset experiments, though regulatory clarity remains patchy. The Bank for International Settlements has flagged tokenization as a potential structural shift in how credit and collateral move across markets, but adoption is still concentrated in pilot programmes rather than live settlement infrastructure at scale.
Next catalyst for Figure is the Q2 loan volume print, expected in the coming weeks. That will confirm whether the growth trajectory holds or whether April was an outlier month. The desk has seen this film before.
This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should not act on any information contained here without first consulting an authorised financial adviser. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
