Intel Stock Is Up 225% in a Year — But Wall Street Still Won’t Call It a Buy

Somewhere in an archive is a picture of the Santa Clara campus in the early 2000s, showing the company at the very center of the technological world, engineers in khakis walking across glass walkways, and crowded parking lots. The chips that powered everything were made by Intel. Nearly every laptop that was sold had the name on the sticker. In actuality, it was the business that created the current computing era.

The years that didn’t go as planned followed. delays in manufacturing. Transitions went wrong. In markets that Intel had previously controlled, rivals like AMD, Nvidia, and eventually Apple are gaining ground. The stock had dropped to $18 and change by the middle of 2025, which suggested that Intel might not be able to compete in the upcoming ten years, if not outright fail. The stock was trading at about one-third of its five-year peak at that point. It was like a business negotiating a slow-motion reckoning.

What transpired next explains why Intel is currently one of the semiconductor industry’s most intriguing and complex narratives. From that $18 low to above $60, the stock has gained more than 225% in less than a year, including a roughly 50% increase in just seven trading sessions this past week. There are actual proximate causes: A $14.2 billion buyback of its Irish manufacturing facility from Apollo Global Management, a $5 billion strategic investment from Nvidia, Intel’s participation in the Terafab Chip Project linked to Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Tesla ventures, and accelerating data center and AI revenues that grew 15% sequentially in Q4 2025—described by Intel’s own CFO as the fastest sequential DCAI growth in ten years. These catalysts are not manufactured. The market is pricing the company’s trajectory aggressively because something has actually changed.

The fact that Wall Street analysts have not followed the stock higher is a real source of tension. The consensus among the roughly 30 to 57 analysts who cover Intel, depending on the source, is firmly “Hold,” with median price targets ranging from $47 to $48, which is significantly below where the stock is currently trading. Of those analysts, only nine have buy ratings. Six are rated as sellable. A month ago, Cantor Fitzgerald’s price target of $60 would have seemed bullish, but the stock was already there at the time of the upgrade. The gap between what analysts are willing to support and what the market is doing with Intel shares is widening, and it typically doesn’t close easily.

You can understand why there is hesitation by looking at the financial picture. In FY2025, Intel reported a net loss of -$267 million for the entire year. Despite the revenue beat, the net loss in Q4 2025 alone was $591 million. In the same quarter, the foundry division, which is the business unit on which Intel is placing its long-term manufacturing revival, reported an operating loss of $2.51 billion. In Q1 2026, revenue is expected to drop sequentially from Q4 to a midpoint of $12.2 billion. Depending on the estimate, the stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of between 94 and 117 times earnings. This multiple assumes exceptional performance in the future. Purchasing at this price entails paying for a recovery that hasn’t yet materialized as of the income statement. It might. Another possibility is that the market has outpaced itself.

The catalyst that caused the biggest change this week was the Terafab connection, which is something to carefully consider. In the same way that affiliation with Tesla or SpaceX has historically raised suppliers’ and partners’ stocks above what could be justified by simple financial reasoning, a partnership with Elon Musk’s business endeavors carries a unique kind of halo effect. This is not to argue that the Terafab project is unreal or worthless. A significant contract that serves as an endorsement of Intel’s capabilities by companies known for demanding cutting-edge performance is the company’s contribution to chip design and sophisticated packaging for a large-scale robotics and computing facility. However, a portion of the stock’s movement this week smells more like enthusiasm than earnings, and enthusiasm can be a shaky foundation for a $60 price.

Investors have found CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who took over in March 2025, to be more trustworthy than his predecessor. His extensive industry connections and experience in semiconductor investing have added depth to the story of the foundry turnaround. According to reports, the 18A process node—Intel’s wager on regaining manufacturing leadership through the production of next-generation chips—is in high-volume manufacturing, a milestone that previous management had promised but failed to achieve. According to reports, AWS is one of the clients dedicated to that node. Over a period of two to three years, the current price of the stock can be justified if Intel can increase external customer revenue and execute on foundry profitability. Some analysts have stated that a target of $65 to $90 by 2027 is not unrealistic. All that’s needed is for things to go well for a longer period of time than Intel’s recent past may indicate.

It’s difficult to ignore the fact that a number of senior Intel executives sold shares during the rally. The CLO, CAO, and head of foundry operations sold about 238,200 shares between $44 and $49, which is significantly less than current prices. Executives have financial planning needs just like everyone else, so insider selling during a rally isn’t always a red flag. However, it adds a cautionary note that should be acknowledged. Intel has been rewarded by the market with a price that suggests a certain recovery. When given the opportunity, the company’s executives seem to have been a little less confident.

The next big test will be the Q1 2026 earnings report on April 23. According to guidance, the quarter’s non-GAAP EPS should be close to zero, with little room for error. A beat might move the stock closer to the $70 mark that some technical analysts are currently aiming for. It could quickly retrace toward the $48 to $53 support zone if there is a miss or guidance that validates the sequential revenue decline. As this develops, there’s a sense that Intel’s narrative is truly at a turning point—not the fabricated one the company has repeatedly asserted, but a genuine one supported by real partnerships and process node advancements. Investors are wondering whether the stock has outpaced that story or if the story is finally catching up to the stock before earnings day.