HMRC’s data reveals housing transactions rose marginally in September.
- Seasonally adjusted residential transactions were 91,820, slightly up from August.
- Both residential and non-residential transaction numbers improved from the previous year.
- Experts note the impact of recent mortgage rate cuts on market confidence.
- The outlook hinges on upcoming interest rate decisions by the Bank of England.
The HMRC’s latest data indicates a minor rise in housing transactions for September 2024. Seasonally adjusted figures show 91,820 residential transactions, marking a slight increase from the previous month and a notable 9% rise from the same period last year. These findings suggest a recovering market trajectory, driven in part by recent mortgage rate reductions and improved borrowing conditions for potential homeowners.
Non-residential transactions also experienced growth, with provisional seasonally adjusted numbers reaching 10,250, a 5% increase from both the previous month and the same month last year. This growth in non-residential transactions further supports the notion of a market on the mend, despite ongoing economic uncertainties and recent tax amendments affecting the housing sector.
Analysts like Nathan Emerson from Propertymark express optimism about the sector’s resilience. He observes an ongoing transformation and anticipates potential benefits from possible base rate cuts in the near future, despite some challenges posed by recent budgetary changes.
The commercial director at Fignum, Josh Skelding, echoes these sentiments, highlighting a two-year high in mortgage approvals that coincides with September’s transaction figures. Skelding notes a shift towards confidence and flexibility in the market, buoyed by stable inflation rates. However, he cautions about the delicacy of the situation, given the looming decisions by the Bank of England on interest rates.
Industry voices such as Andrew Lloyd of Search Acumen emphasise the importance of a stable policy environment following the recent budget announcement. He argues that the outlined £5 billion investment in housing signals a commitment to meet future demand, even as the sector navigates tax increases and regulatory changes.
Nick Leeming from Jackson-Stops comments on the market’s buoyancy post-election, attributing recent momentum to a positive economic outlook coupled with falling interest rates. Yet, he warns of a stagnant market limited by insufficient housing stock, advocating for systemic reforms to stimulate growth.
The general consensus among experts is cautiously optimistic, recognising the potential for further positive developments in the housing market as long as upcoming monetary policy adjustments are managed prudently.
The housing market exhibits signs of recovery, contingent on stable economic policies and prudent interest rate management.
