The Building Cost Information Service (BCIS) projects a 16% increase in building maintenance costs by 2029.
- Labour-driven cleaning costs are set to soar by 23%, while energy expenses may decrease by 22%.
- The economic landscape of 2024 presents challenges due to high interest rates and funding constraints.
- A potential rise in Repair & Maintenance (R&M) output, particularly in public housing and infrastructure, is expected in the forecast period.
- Upcoming budget decisions may significantly influence future R&M projects amidst a £22bn financial gap.
The Building Cost Information Service (BCIS) has projected a notable 16% increase in building maintenance costs by the spring of 2029. This forecast is outlined in their latest All-in Maintenance Cost Indices report, illustrating the anticipated financial demands on the sector.
A significant driver of these rising maintenance costs is attributed to cleaning expenses, which BCIS forecasts will rise by 23% over the next five years. This increase is primarily driven by labour costs, contrasting with a predicted 22% reduction in energy expenses during the same period.
The economic outlook for 2024 appears challenging, with high interest rates and constrained funding creating difficulties on both demand and supply sides. According to BCIS chief data officer Karl Horton, the sector will experience stagnant repair and maintenance output initially, with growth anticipated in the latter years of the forecast period. Wage increases aimed at recovering from real-term declines and rising national living wages are expected to contribute to these cost escalations.
While BCIS anticipates a decline across all repair and maintenance sub-sectors in 2024, exceptions are expected in public housing and infrastructure. Despite overall growth predicted for 2025, non-housing R&M sectors might continue to experience a downturn. BCIS projects an 8% rise in R&M output over five years, contingent on various external factors.
Significant upcoming budget decisions may further impact R&M endeavours, particularly in light of the £22 billion shortfall in national finances that the Chancellor must address. This financial strain poses risks to necessary projects, including those involving urgent school, hospital, and prison repairs, as well as broader government and local authority building maintenance. The potential funding availability for backlog maintenance, decarbonisation efforts, and RAAC (reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete) repairs remains uncertain.
The BCIS’s forecast underscores the multifaceted economic factors set to shape future building maintenance costs significantly.
